The Austin housing market is holding steady but continues to face the weight of high inventory and cooling demand, signaling a market that still leans toward buyers despite price stabilization.

Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for September 16, 2025.

Market Overview

As of September 16, 2025, active residential listings in Austin stand at 16,951, down from the summer peak of 18,146 at the end of June. This is still 15.2% higher than the same point last year when active listings totaled 14,712. The number underscores how much supply has grown year over year, even as it has begun to ease from its midsummer high. A striking detail is that 58% of all active listings have experienced at least one price reduction, a clear sign that sellers are being forced to adjust expectations to attract buyers in a competitive environment.

Pending listings, which serve as a direct measure of market demand, are slightly weaker than last year. Current pending contracts total 4,072, down 2.1% from 4,158 in 2024. On a cumulative basis for the year through September, pending sales are down 7.1% compared with 2024, even though they remain just under 1% above the 25-year average. This is a reminder that while activity is soft relative to last year, it is not abnormally low in a long-term context.

The Activity Index—a measure of how quickly inventory is converting into contracts—sits at 19.4%, down from 22.0% last year, a 12.1% drop year over year. The index shows the challenge buyers and sellers face: while inventory remains high, fewer homes are going under contract relative to supply, tilting conditions toward buyers.

Housing Prices

Price trends remain below peak levels but are showing some consistency. The average sold price in September 2025 is $564,999, representing a 17.1% decline from the May 2022 peak of $681,939. The median sold price is $435,000, down 20.9% (about $115,000) from the peak of $550,000 in May 2022.

Compared to three years ago, the median sold price is down 7.45%, showing that the correction has not only erased the pandemic surge but also trimmed into prior years’ growth. Still, based on Austin’s historical 25-year compound appreciation rate of 4.84%, the forecast suggests that if $435,000 marks the bottom of the cycle, prices could recover to roughly $551,769 by late 2030—a timeline of about 63 months. This long-run perspective is critical for both buyers and investors considering the Austin housing forecast.

At the price-tier level, the market is moving unevenly. Homes in the bottom 25th percentile are down 4.1% year over year, while the top 25th percentile has risen 7.4%, with luxury properties proving more resilient. This spread reflects buyer demand concentrating at higher price points, while affordability pressures weigh more heavily on entry-level homes.

Regional Trends

Sales activity reflects similar themes. A total of 2,335 properties closed in September 2025, bringing the year-to-date total to 22,889 sold homes. That’s down 4.3% compared with 2024, yet it remains 5.5% above the long-term historical average. When measured per capita, however, sales are running behind: 896 homes sold per 100,000 residents year-to-date, which is 22% below the 25-year average.

By submarket, months of inventory show wide variation. The metro average now sits at 6.01 months, up from 5.24 months in 2024—a 14.5% year-over-year increase. While Austin proper sits near 5.39 months, suburban areas like Smithville (15.16 months), Dale (19.09 months), and Spicewood (16.10 months) have far higher supply relative to sales. These regional disparities matter: sellers in outer markets face a longer wait and more competition, while closer-in urban areas are holding steadier.

List-to-Sale Price Performance

With 58% of homes undergoing price drops, sellers are under pressure to remain competitive. Buyers have more leverage today than in recent years, especially when paired with longer marketing times. The absorption rate is currently 17.54%, well below the historic average of 31.82%. This confirms that inventory is building faster than sales, a sign of buyer-favored conditions.

The Monthly New Listing-to-Pending Ratio is at 0.59, meaning that for every 100 homes listed in September, just 59 have gone under contract. Year-to-date, the ratio is 0.70, compared with the long-term average of 0.82. This widening gap—7,160 more listings than contracts so far this year—illustrates the ongoing supply-demand imbalance.

Peak Value Trends

Austin housing remains well below its peak values, but the longer-term appreciation forecast offers perspective. From a peak median of $550,000 in May 2022 to today’s $435,000, the decline has been sharp. Yet, given the city’s 25-year track record, the Austin real estate forecast suggests a recovery is likely, though gradual. The projection of about 63 months to regain peak pricing emphasizes that the path forward is not immediate but measured. Investors with a long horizon may view this as an entry point, while sellers may need to calibrate expectations around timing.

The Market Flow Score—a composite that normalizes supply, demand, and absorption on a 0–10 scale—stands at 5.54, below the historical average of 6.60. This score indicates a slower, supply-heavy market. It suggests a period of stability rather than rapid growth, with buyers having the edge in negotiations.

Conclusion

The Austin housing market is in a holding pattern, defined by elevated supply, modest demand, and continued price adjustments. Active listings are high, pending contracts are soft, and inventory has grown significantly over last year. Prices remain about 20% off their peaks, and recovery will take time based on historical appreciation patterns. For buyers, the environment provides more options and leverage than at any point in recent memory. For sellers, the challenge is clear: competitive pricing and patience are required. For investors, today’s numbers may present a strategic entry point, but returns will be long-term rather than immediate.​